Are we looking at another quality chance for a severe weather event tomorrow (September 18, 2012)? Yes, in fact we are. Various elements are coming together like warm temperatures and dew-point spreads and with a decent lifting mechanism (the front), we might be seeing our second severe event in just a matter of a few weeks. Unclear are certain elements that would increase or decrease our chances for tornado favorable storms versus more linear straight line wind event. Also unclear is if all the various ingredients will combine at the right time. At times, storms can be like throwing the seasoning on the steak after it is already cooked. It is OK, but isn’t a full bodied taste. We have to see clear skies for sufficient low level heating, then we have to get the winds veering. We have to have good temperatures set not just at the surface, but continue upward into the atmosphere. Then, as a chaser, I need to see slower forward speeds (to keep up with the storm) and decent clearing around mature storms to be able to see and capture quality images.
The Day two outlook from the afternoon issued by the Storm Prediction Center for September 18, 2012
As of the moment, the basic plan is to head east around the DC beltway and set-up over in PG county. This is to anticipate a local threat, being able to move quickly west toward a storm if it forms quickly, or hold in a waiting pattern for the storm to come into the area and track it east (along US 50) and then get some decent imagery on the east side of Chesapeake Bay.
Plenty to see forecast wise before tomorrow. I do look forward to heading out though. I love the newly organized and upgraded home-office, but I am an outside man.
At this point too, not sure if I’ll be chasing with my usual partner Mark Ellinwood. He put out a write up on Ian Livingston’s site about the tornado threat specifically: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/09/17/tornado-threat-forecast-sep-18-2012/ as those two are way better forecasters than me. Check it out.
I likely will have an update tomorrow morning. Don’t forget too, that I’ll update from twitter (http://www.twitter.com/weatherwarrior1) if you are not already following me there.
Storm∙iTECTURE 